Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W SW to 07N22W where the ITCZ begins and then contiues SW to 01N38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 0N to 08N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 0N to 10N between 43W and 56W.

Gulf Of Mexico

The tail of a cold front extends from Venice, Florida NW to 27N84W where it transitions to a warm front that reaches NE of Houston, Texas. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are in the NE Gulf north of 27N being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow. West of 87W, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the SE and seas are moderate. East of 87W, winds are light to gentle and seas are slight. Otherwise, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue lifting northward through Fri, perhaps stall near the coast. A series of upper- level disturbances moving from W to E should help keep active weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the gradient relaxes.

Caribbean Sea

The gradient related to high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and moderate to fresh in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are moderate to 6 ft in both the SW and NW Caribbean, and slight elsewhere where winds are gentle to moderate from the east to southeast. Otherwise, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the NW Caribbean while smoke is reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun evening. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N69W southwestward to Boyton Beach, Florida. A swath of scattered showers and isolated tstms are ahead of the front, currently affecting the central Bahamas offshore waters and the north-central offshores between 63W and 68W. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds follow the front along with moderate seas to 7 ft. Ahead of the front, N of 26N and to 62W, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW and seas are moderate to rough to 9 ft. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High and associated ridge, which is being intersected by a dissipating stationary front that extends from 31N44W to 22N57W. The ridge is providing light to gentle winds in the central subtropical waters and gentle to moderate NE winds across the NE subtropical waters. Seas are moderate to 7 ft across these two regions. In the central tropical Atlantic, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, trade winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N68W to 27N76W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to 26N74W Fri night, from near 31N63W to 26N70W early Sat afternoon and shift east of 55W by early Sun evening. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then at fresh speeds Fri night diminishing Sat afternoon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Fri night into Sat as the front dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected through Sun.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos